{ "generatedAt": "2026-03-15T11:30:22", "config": { "startYear": 2013, "endYear": 2023 }, "panelCoverage": { "startYear": 2013, "endYear": 2023, "stateCount": 51, "observationCount": 551, "totalFatalities": 410036, "totalFatalCrashes": 377349 }, "models": { "stateTrend": { "fatalities": { "elasticity": -0.007, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.07, "pvalue": 0.7468, "r2": 0.9913, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 }, "fatal_crashes": { "elasticity": -0.0083, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.08, "pvalue": 0.686, "r2": 0.9916, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 }, "fatality_rate": { "elasticity": -0.0184, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.18, "pvalue": 0.3633, "r2": 0.8484, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 }, "fatal_crash_rate": { "elasticity": -0.0197, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.19, "pvalue": 0.2953, "r2": 0.8425, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 } }, "stateYearFE": { "fatalities": { "elasticity": 0.3636, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": 3.53, "pvalue": 0.1662, "r2": 0.9926, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 }, "fatal_crashes": { "elasticity": 0.327, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": 3.17, "pvalue": 0.2281, "r2": 0.9929, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 }, "fatality_rate": { "elasticity": 0.2203, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": 2.12, "pvalue": 0.4338, "r2": 0.8813, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 }, "fatal_crash_rate": { "elasticity": 0.1836, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": 1.77, "pvalue": 0.5373, "r2": 0.8787, "nobs": 551, "state_count": 51, "year_count": 11 } }, "nationalTimeSeries": { "fatalities": { "elasticity": -0.0908, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.86, "pvalue": 0.4087, "r2": 0.7434, "nobs": 11, "state_count": 1, "year_count": 11 }, "fatal_crashes": { "elasticity": -0.0903, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.86, "pvalue": 0.4091, "r2": 0.7496, "nobs": 11, "state_count": 1, "year_count": 11 }, "fatality_rate": { "elasticity": -0.0654, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.62, "pvalue": 0.5093, "r2": 0.6531, "nobs": 11, "state_count": 1, "year_count": 11 }, "fatal_crash_rate": { "elasticity": -0.0649, "effect_pct_per_10pct_gas_increase": -0.62, "pvalue": 0.5105, "r2": 0.6624, "nobs": 11, "state_count": 1, "year_count": 11 } } }, "yoyCorrelations": { "fatalities": -0.0097, "fatal_crashes": -0.0124, "fatality_rate": -0.1789, "fatal_crash_rate": -0.1836 }, "coloradoSummary": { "startYear": 2013, "endYear": 2023, "fatalityRateStart": 1.026, "fatalityRateEnd": 1.317, "gasPriceStart": 28.17, "gasPriceEnd": 29.83 }, "nationalSummary": { "fatalityRateStart": 1.103, "fatalityRateEnd": 1.26, "gasPriceStart": 28.61, "gasPriceEnd": 29.02 }, "stateProfileHighlights": { "mostInverseYoyStates": [ { "state_abbr": "DC", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.8508, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 106.42, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 34.67 }, { "state_abbr": "KY", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.7815, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 22.39, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -2.03 }, { "state_abbr": "MD", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.6391, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 31.99, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 0.58 }, { "state_abbr": "WI", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.6088, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -5.03, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -2.0 }, { "state_abbr": "MS", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.5647, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 13.04, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -5.65 } ], "mostPositiveYoyStates": [ { "state_abbr": "CT", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": 0.4052, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 9.24, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -2.55 }, { "state_abbr": "HI", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": 0.2173, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -11.76, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 21.11 }, { "state_abbr": "MA", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": 0.2159, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -9.42, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -0.44 }, { "state_abbr": "DE", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": 0.1564, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 30.61, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 0.59 }, { "state_abbr": "AK", "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": 0.1481, "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 1.54, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 21.11 } ], "largestFatalityRateDrops": [ { "state_abbr": "ND", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -26.9, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -2.01, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.2308 }, { "state_abbr": "MT", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -20.22, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 6.95, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.3136 }, { "state_abbr": "HI", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -11.76, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 21.11, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": 0.2173 }, { "state_abbr": "ME", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -11.03, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -2.57, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.1794 }, { "state_abbr": "MA", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": -9.42, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": -0.44, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": 0.2159 } ], "largestFatalityRateRises": [ { "state_abbr": "DC", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 106.42, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 34.67, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.8508 }, { "state_abbr": "WA", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 77.72, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 23.28, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.2584 }, { "state_abbr": "OR", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 71.7, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 21.14, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.4289 }, { "state_abbr": "WY", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 61.87, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 6.98, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.0166 }, { "state_abbr": "CA", "fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end": 36.04, "gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end": 24.32, "gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation": -0.2708 } ] }, "descriptiveSummary": { "averageUsFatalityRatePer100mVmt": 1.205, "averageUsGasPriceMmbtu": 23.91, "peakGasYear": { "year": 2022, "gasPriceMmbtu": 32.41, "fatalityRatePer100mVmt": 1.337 }, "troughGasYear": { "year": 2020, "gasPriceMmbtu": 18.01, "fatalityRatePer100mVmt": 1.347 }, "changeFromStartToEndPct": { "gasPrice": 1.43, "fatalityRate": 14.17 }, "stateYoyCorrelationDistribution": { "stateCount": 51, "negativeSharePct": 80.4, "positiveSharePct": 19.6, "mean": -0.237, "median": -0.239, "q25": -0.431, "q75": -0.096 } }, "findings": [ "In the state fixed-effects plus time-trend model, a 10% increase in gasoline prices is associated with about 0.2% lower fatality rates per 100M VMT (p=0.3633).", "In the U.S.-only annual time-series model, a 10% increase in gasoline prices is associated with about 0.6% lower national fatality rates per 100M VMT (p=0.5093).", "In the stricter state-and-year fixed-effects model, the sign flips: a 10% increase in gasoline prices is associated with about 2.1% higher fatality rates (p=0.4338). That spec only uses within-year state price differences, so it is not the same question as a national gas shock.", "Across within-state year-over-year changes, gas-price changes and fatality-rate changes are correlated at -0.18.", "The highest U.S. gas-price year in the panel is 2022 at 32.41, while the lowest is 2020 at 18.01. The national fatality rate is almost the same in those two years: 1.337 versus 1.347 per 100M VMT.", "At the state level, 80.4% of states have a negative year-over-year gas-vs-fatality-rate correlation, but the spread is still wide enough that the national model results stay weak and unstable.", "Bottom line: the national fatality data do not reproduce the strong Colorado crash-count drop. At the national level the relationship is weak, specification-sensitive, and not statistically decisive." ], "limitations": [ "The national build covers fatal crashes and fatalities, not all crashes.", "Gas prices come from EIA's annual state motor-gasoline price series in dollars per million Btu, not weekly pump-price snapshots.", "FHWA VMT is an annual state exposure measure, so the model is state-year rather than monthly.", "The state-and-year fixed-effects spec answers a narrower question than a national gas shock because it uses relative state price differences within the same year.", "All three model families still show association rather than proof of causation.", "Pandemic-era mobility shifts and state policy differences can still affect fatality outcomes alongside gas prices." ], "sourceLinks": { "NHTSA FARS information": "https://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-reporting-system-fars", "FARS 2023 national CSV zip": "https://static.nhtsa.gov/nhtsa/downloads/FARS/2023/National/FARS2023NationalCSV.zip", "FHWA VM-2 table (2023)": "https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2023/vm2.cfm", "EIA state gasoline prices workbook": "https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/sep_sum/html/xls/pr_ex_mg.xlsx" }, "artifacts": [ "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-panel.csv", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-yoy.csv", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-fatalities-summary.csv", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-panel.json", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-yoy.json", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-fatalities-summary.json", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-gas-fatality-profiles.csv", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-gas-fatality-profiles.json", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-us-gas-vs-fatality-rate-index.png", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-state-year-gas-vs-fatality-rate-yoy.png", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-vs-us-fatality-rate.png", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-national-model-comparison.png", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-state-correlation-distribution.png", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-prices-vs-fatalities-report.json", "C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-prices-vs-fatalities-report.md" ] }